Award analysts have always said that winners of SAG-AFTRA marks high chances for actors to win at the Academy Awards.
The 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild brings together this years’ best actors together in one room. Films like Manchester by the Sea, Lion, and La La Land are among some of the best nominated this year. The Academy Award nominations were released in the early morning on January 24th, which allows strong predictions to be made with a slight chance of error. One thing to always remember: Never expect consistency with voters, to an extent.
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
The predicted favorite is Manchester by the Sea’s Casey Affleck, who recently received a Golden Globe for his lead performance. He is not the only one that nabbed a Golden Globe for his lead performance: Ryan Gosling, whose enchanting performance in La La Land will make voters constantly change their vote between the two. Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen, and Denzel Washington are the other formidable actors nominated as well, so it’s obviously not a clear-cut choice. Viggo Mortensen could surprise with a win, given his recent Oscar nomination.
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea (will win)
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land (should win)
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic (surprise win)
Denzel Washington – Fences
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Out of all the nominees, Emma Stone has proven herself to be exceptional, previously nominated for her work in the supporting category in Birdman. This performance has proven that there are no constraints attached to her talents. Natalie Portman does subliminal work as Jacqueline Kennedy in Jackie, a performance that will be talked about for decades to come. Emily Blunt sneaked in the nominated list proving to voters that her performance in the thriller The Girl on the Train should not be dismissed. Then there’s Meryl Streep. Period. What additional praise can be said about her that hasn’t already been said?
Amy Adams – Arrival
Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train (surprise win)
Natalie Portman – Jackie (should win)
Emma Stone – La La Land (will win)
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals) is not nominated in this category, but the choices are really fun to predict. Dev Patel and Lucas Hedges were nominated for their first Academy Award, the latter being a surprise. Moonlight won Best Picture at the Golden Globes, which inclines me to think they ought to recognize Mahershala Ali’s performance. Jeff Bridges, an elder statesman of his craft, has proven to keep the performances coming.
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight (will win)
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water (surprise win)
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion (should win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis is an actor who has been given the opportunity to express unsettling emotions and depth with her character in Fences. She gives a performance worthy of all the accolades bestowed on her and then some. Octavia Spencer’s (Hidden Figures) character has this witty banter mixed with strong female qualities that is the kind of performance which proves to be a favorite amongst voters. If I had to pick, Naomie Harris deserves this award for the scornful, complex, and fragile portrayal of a mother coming to terms with decisions she’s made in the past.
Viola Davis – Fences (will win)
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Naomie Harris – Moonlight (should win)
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures (surprise win)
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Having won two SAG Awards for his work in House of Cards, Spacey stands in the way of John Lithgow (The Crown), whose portrayal of Winston Churchill won him widespread praise. This is a difficult category because unlike the Hollywood Foreign Press, this award is voted by actors. All of these actors’ work including Rami Malek and Sterling K. Brown are admired by many. Who else can forget Dinklage’s embodiment of Tyrion Lannister this past season on Game of Thrones?
Sterling K. Brown – This Is Us (surprise win)
Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
John Lithgow – The Crown (should win)
Rami Malek – Mr. Robot
Kevin Spacey – House of Cards (will win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Stranger Things and Westworld were the shows loved by everyone, but after Claire Foy was announced the winner for the Golden Globe, it is likely to assume the future accolades that will follow, SAG being one of them. Winona Ryder, Thandie Newton, and Millie Bobby Brown all pulled extraordinary performances in these TV hits. Don’t dismiss them!
Millie Bobby Brown – Stranger Things (surprise win)
Claire Foy – The Crown (will win)
Thandie Newton – Westworld
Winona Ryder – Stranger Things (should win)
Robin Wright – House of Cards
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent) will most likely be the winner having previously won last year’s SAG in this category. William H. Macy (Shameless) won the year before that, and Ty Burrell (Modern Family) won the year before Macy won his. There seems to be a pattern here: Anthony Anderson (Black-ish) might be next in line.
Anthony Anderson – Black-ish (will win)
Tituss Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (surprise win)
Ty Burrell – Modern Family
William H. Macy – Shameless
Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent (should win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba previously won two consecutive SAG awards for her performance in Orange Is the New Black. Grace and Frankie’s duo are enjoying success as two wives, whose husbands of forty years fall in love with one another. This is Jane Fonda’s first SAG nomination for a comedy series; will this be followed by a first win? Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ Veep proves to win all the awards; so I am eager to see the chosen winner.
Uzo Aduba – Orange Is the New Black (will win)
Jane Fonda – Grace and Frankie (surprise win)
Ellie Kemper – The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep
Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie (should win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
The People V. O.J Simpson has reveled in the reviews, awards, and success it has received, which leads me to be inclinde that Courtney B. Vance or Sterling K. Brown will win. Cranston (All the Way) has won the most SAG awards than anyone in this category, and with the image of Walter White looming behind him, will the Actors vote for him?
Riz Ahmed – The Night Of (surprise win)
Sterling K. Brown – The People V. O.J Simpson: American Crime Story (will win)
Bryan Cranston – All the Way
John Turturro – The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance – The People V. O.J Simpson: American Crime Story (should win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Sarah Paulson has won an Emmy, Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and predicted over and over again that she will win the SAG award. Kerry Washington and Felicity Huffman’s performances get dismissed over Paulson’s name but they have just a shot of winning as much as Bryan Dallas Howard (Black Mirror) and Audra McDonald (Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill) do.
Bryce Dallas Howard – Black Mirror (surprise win)
Felicity Huffman – American Crime
Audra McDonald – Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill
Sarah Paulson – The People V. O.J Simpson: American Crime (will win)
Kerry Washington – Confirmation (should win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
This category is impossible to decide, but I would hope it would go to a show that reached a level of ratings and appreciation widespread over a period of years. I haven’t seen this category go to a newly released show. I could be wrong. The Crown is a period piece, filled with great British actors, and thoroughly engaging. The same can be applied to other shows nominated alongside The Crown.
The Crown (should win)
Games of Thrones (will win)
Westworld (surprise win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The balance of comedy and drama is due to an ensemble that aids the story telling. This is key and representative of the shows nominated in this category.
The Big Bang Theory (should win)
Black-ish (surprise win)
Orange Is the New Black (will win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
The technicality of stunt coordinators proves to keep the mysticism behind the shows nominated in this category. This is so true for shows like Marvel’s Daredevil or Marvel’s Luke Cage. It would be wonderful to see them win for the incredible work being done behind the scenes.
Game of Thrones (will win)
Marvel’s Daredevil (surprise win)
Marvel’s Luke Cage
The Walking Dead
Westworld (should win)
SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
These nominees are some of the most visually charged and dynamic films put together and rightfully so. Whichever wins in this category are deserving.
Captain America: Civil War
Doctor Strange (should win)
Nocturnal Animals (surprise win)
Jason Bourne (will win)